Thread: Winds of change?

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A little while back Pops noted that he sees parts prices and sales on ebay softening. It has seemed to me over the past couple months that a lot of rods/muscle cars have been languishing in the ads, and several with "new, lower price" exclamations (kinda like the housing market). Yesterday I was talking to a couple buddies in Portland who deal in old cars and they say the number of hits on their ads is way down. Now, there is a seasonal component to this. Year in and year out I've avoided running any listings on ebay until around the first of October because the activity has always appeared slower in the summer months to me. I'm reinforced in that opinion by the "free" or reduced cost fees promoted by ebay, I suspect to gin up activity rather than to show generosity. There's logically less demand for completed/running cars as most of the nation is entering a weather cycle that discourages cruising. Along with the poorer weather comes building/modifying/refurbishing time in the garage, which probably hasn't started quite yet, but should better for parts and projects in the near future. But I can't help but wonder if market forces are at work again. First, of course, we're in election season (although I'm not so sure we aren't in a perpetual cycle of that anymore). Which means that a lap dog media has to promote negativity to benefit their chosen politicians. Of course they've been down playing the economy for six straight years, though a rational look back at performance belies their, dare I say, lies. Certainly the economy performs in cycles (always has, likely always will) and the last couple decades has been on an approximate 8 year wave, so we're due a downward slope. And I suspect that part of what fueled the big bulge in our hobby's participation the last few years was money freed up from home refinancing. A short term prospect at best.

Anyway, my ruminations aside, anyone else notice slowing? I'm just wondering if there's a regional component to this, in other words, are some parts of the country rolling right along (car hobby wise), or is it a general consensus?

Hopefully any responses will be well thought out, realistic and not the knee jerk, thoughtless, "I hate greedy oil companies", "corporations are evil", "George Bush is an idiot" type of screed.

I work in many markets, and I have seen radical shifting going on for about the last 7 years, in many parts of the hobby.

Styles, the popularity of many types of special interest car and bikes, the age groups that are driving the markets, and so on, have been in a state of turmoil.

Also I have noticed that using the equity in your house to own expensive toys has been gaining popularity amongst younger enthusiasts, until the last few months, for obvious reasons. After 35 years in the biz, I am used to constant change, but I've never seen this much change in so short of a period.

The television coverage of car and bike hobbies, such as build shows and auctions, has stimulated interest like never before, but it also accelerates the "burn out" of new interests.

I am finding that I start establishing myself as a paint source for a new segment of the hobby, and a year later, it is already diminishing, and I am working on developing customer interest in another area. I guess I will just have to adapt quickly, until the world falls into a boring period of stability. :-)

I think that more folks are realizing that our economy is going to hell in a hand basket. The average joe realizes that they don't need to be spending big bucks on a toy.

The wealth will still have their toys, but the average guy will do without or go the budget route.

Scorpions, Crazy World - 1990

Seems to me that increased gas prices are putting a damper on many things. Until the last couple of years, I've almost never seen hotrodders bring up so many questions about "cruising" gears, lower HP motors and gas mileage.

I also suspect that many of the hot rod $$$ are getting poured into ricers by the younger set.

Another issue could be the "instant gratification" generation that's in the prime hot rod age. A project takes years, and with the fairly recent technology explosion, the twento-to-thirty somethings are kind of used to getting what they want, and getting it now.

Along with that comes the availability - because of electronics and fuel injection - of factory hot rods. Why build it when you can buy it?

Perhaps its just a cycle, and we're on a normal downswing.

Finally, we shouldn't forget that thousands of potential hot rodders are away from their jobs, and encamped in the desert or on some military base getting ready to be rotated over there.

Are these all reasons? You got me. I don't know any more than the next guy. However, I do know that when I go to a Saturday gathering at one of the several shopping centers in the area, the lot is full.

It just isn't the car hobby that is in a downturn, I feel that every market is slow right now. New car dealers can't give them away almost, home sales are down significantly to the point where some people are offering a new car free if you buy a home, construction is down, boat sales are horrible, etc, etc.

I know someone is going to come on and say the economy is in great shape, and maybe it is where they live, but not in SW Florida. The complex where my shop is located normally is bustling during the week. Now when I pull in on any weekday it looks like a Sunday. Half of the shops have closed up, even the Deli next door to me. He relied on the construction guys and other business people coming in for lunch, but he said that has dried up. He is now just doing catering to make it through. I stopped at the auto repair shop down the way last week, and they were playing cards........no work, and they are normally booked solid.

I wanted to go back into the marina business part time now that I have retired, but my friend who had been offering me a job now says he has so little business he can't afford me right now. Good thing I am not solely depending on that job for survival.

I just dumped a bunch of stuff on Ebay to clean out some of my unneeded parts and help cover the cost of getting my T painted, and the bids were much lower than I would have gotten and have gotten in the past.

What is the old saying? " A recession is when YOU are out of work, and a depression is when I am out of work."


Don

Fellas,come to Austin.The morning paper read, Austin Work Force in trouble.Not enough people to fill the job requirements.

Heck I may have to go back to work just to help out(joke).

Real Estate is full speed ahead.
Excellent streetrod environment.Etc

Hard to believe but true. Check with KITZ he'll back it up.

Things here in SW Mo. seem to be fairly steady. Gas prices fluctuating, but that's pretty normal these days it seems and I think it has more to do with the speculators than anything else.
The new car business appears to be fairly robust as we have a number of Calif. retirees moving in the area as well as a lot of other professional types.
The housing market I don't believe is in too much of a decline although the developers in this area seem hell bent on making Springfield the Mo. capital of 3 and 4 story apartment buildings.
All in all I can't really complain.

Haven't seen much bad new around here. Looks like a good year crop wise, and of course that money circulates through the community many times over... All the car shops I deal with are as busy or busier then a year ago... I've got waaaaaay too much going on, but that's probably more by choice then an economic condition. I agree on the eBay in the summer, not worth putting anything on there, summers are just too busy with other activities. Attendance at our local shows and swap meets has been at or above the average in both exhibitors and spectators... Living in a small town, haven't noticed any difference the number of houses for sale, or the price they're selling for... However, George Bush IS an idiot!!!!

You are surely right. Bob; there is a change in the wind. It seems to me, that in terms of the car culture, those who have the interest to take on a project, don't have as much disposable income, any longer, and those who do have enough disposable income are disposing of it on completed cars, rather than taking on the work themselves.

For my own point of view, I sure don't have any disposable income, any longer, what with increases in utilities (absolutely absurd), insurance, gasoline (over the past few years), and just the general increases in the costs of day-to-day getting along; and the investment picture, where my only income comes from, is not all that good, either - just barely maintaining par. I have two vehicles sitting in my yard that both need some sort of work - one, much more than the other, but there is no extra gold to dispose of. Hopefully, this trucking thing will help, a bit; I'm a partner in it, and should get some income out of it.

Originally Posted by Don Dalton

Fellas,come to Austin.The morning paper read, Austin Work Force in trouble.Not enough people to fill the job requirements.

Heck I may have to go back to work just to help out(joke).

Real Estate is full speed ahead.
Excellent streetrod environment.Etc

Hard to believe but true. Check with KITZ he'll back it up.

I am roughly an hour north of you Don, and it's the same here. Things are fine, no signs of slowing down around here either.

Well, this started out as a question and I still don't see a clear picture. Anecdotal comments about the economy are pretty typical, most likely shaded by political views or local conditions.

In the month since the original post my personal view is reinforced by some reasonably positive outcomes. I ran some ebay auctions for a variety of parts and in general got bidding at or above what I expected. Out of 30 items run, 21 sold. Those that didn't were a couple of items that are very common so even with relative giveaway opening bid levels didn't surprise me to get no action. The others were volume groupings of Automobile Quarterly books that only move if you hit the right shopper window. So all in all, that went well.

Managed to sell (craigslist local ads) a couple flatheads and transmissions for decent money without having to deal with a bunch of low ball jerks. And the only thing that has languished is a '40 Ford project loaded with NOS and new aftermarket parts. Projects often seem to move slowly unless they're an absolute giveaway, so not much surprise there. The right guy has to sync up with the project to make that work. I'll give it another shot after I get back in December, though may wait til February after the holiday busyness gets out of the way. A friend suggested I'd get better action if I RAISED the price because it would attract the higher quality interest crowd who are suspicious if something is priced too low. Interesting thought, and he's got a history of scoring well, so is worth listening to.

The real kicker though was an ebay auction I was watching this week. http://cgi.ebay.com/ebaymotors/ws/eB...167785392&rd=1 This was by a seller getting rid of a used pair of "replica" bomber seats. The interesting thing is, if you go to the site of the guy who makes them; http://www.centerstaterodzandrides.c...inumseats.html (last item on the page) the winning bidder paid just over double (shipping included) what he could have bought them new! AND he backed up his winning bid so was will ing to pay EVEN MORE!!

So, maybe there isn't so much doom and gloom out there.

"Hopefully any responses will be well thought out, realistic and not the knee jerk, thoughtless, "I hate greedy oil companies", "corporations are evil", "George Bush is an idiot" type of screed."

Ouch! Thats no fun!Ok,...I won't....things are fairly good here, the couple of guys that I know that sell rods have been moving street rods and the muscle cars have been sitting. The cars with big motors are sitting and the cruisers are selling. Our economy here is good with the flux of people moving in. I still am feeling the crunch alot more as it seems everything day to day here is going up fast and it cost me double a day to operate than it did a year ago. I think for alot of working stiffs, they feel it too and are building thier own cars instead of buying one thats ready to go.

I dunno. When people are ready they buy. There's folks that have thought about having a rod or other vintage incarnation of vehicle in running condition or not, and when they buy it is almost an impulse regardless of all else. I myself have done that.

Hobby cars are like anything else in the "toy" category. If you get the urge for a jet ski you'll have one in the garage before you know it.

The "blind to all reason" is what auto sales people have benefitted from when folks have stumbled in with stars in their eyes for some vehicle they just gotta have. They've sold themselves and are vulnerable as all get out. Like that with any big ticket adult toy.

I dont know, but as i am watching from the great while north something is definitly happening, our dollar is on par or some days greater than the US buck , Buddies of mine have been watching the race junk site and tell me lots of stuff on sale and cheap(the toys are being sold off)
The big automakers are right now controlling where we have to buy our vehicles by telling the US based dealerships not to sell to Canadians (difference in price up to and in excess of 10,000.00)No real reason why such a difference.
I hate to say it but things may take a turn for the worse yet.

anybody here into conspiracy theroies and other weird movies? www.freedomtofascism.com hope i dont get deleted watch the 15 minute preview 2nd video down. it has to do with the economy