Winds of change?

[Bob Parmenter]

A little while back Pops noted that he sees parts prices and sales on ebay softening. It has seemed to me over the past couple months that a lot of rods/muscle cars have been languishing in the ads, and several with "new, lower price" exclamations (kinda like the housing market). Yesterday I was talking to a couple buddies in Portland who deal in old cars and they say the number of hits on their ads is way down. Now, there is a seasonal component to this. Year in and year out I've avoided running any listings on ebay until around the first of October because the activity has always appeared slower in the summer months to me. I'm reinforced in that opinion by the "free" or reduced cost fees promoted by ebay, I suspect to gin up activity rather than to show generosity. There's logically less demand for completed/running cars as most of the nation is entering a weather cycle that discourages cruising. Along with the poorer weather comes building/modifying/refurbishing time in the garage, which probably hasn't started quite yet, but should better for parts and projects in the near future. But I can't help but wonder if market forces are at work again. First, of course, we're in election season (although I'm not so sure we aren't in a perpetual cycle of that anymore). Which means that a lap dog media has to promote negativity to benefit their chosen politicians. Of course they've been down playing the economy for six straight years, though a rational look back at performance belies their, dare I say, lies. Certainly the economy performs in cycles (always has, likely always will) and the last couple decades has been on an approximate 8 year wave, so we're due a downward slope. And I suspect that part of what fueled the big bulge in our hobby's participation the last few years was money freed up from home refinancing. A short term prospect at best.

Anyway, my ruminations aside, anyone else notice slowing? I'm just wondering if there's a regional component to this, in other words, are some parts of the country rolling right along (car hobby wise), or is it a general consensus?

Hopefully any responses will be well thought out, realistic and not the knee jerk, thoughtless, "I hate greedy oil companies", "corporations are evil", "George Bush is an idiot" type of screed.